Ryanair reported an increased profit in H1 to 1.29 bn euro Ryanair, Europe’s No.1 airline, today (Oct. 31) reported an 11% increase in H1 profit to €1.29bn. Traffic grew 11% to 72m thanks to a strong Easter and a 5% reduction in airfares saving customers over €160m in the half year. Unit costs (including fuel savings) fell 5%, ex-fuel unit costs were flat. H1 Results (IFRS) Sept 30, 2016 Sept 30, 2017 % Change Customers (m) 64.8 72.1 +11% Revenue (m) €4,132 €4,425 +7% Profit after Tax (m) €1,168 €1,293 +11% Net Margin 28% 29% +1pt Basic EPS €0.92 €1.07 +16% Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary said: “These strong H1 results reinforce the robust nature of Ryanair’s low fare, pan-European growth model even during a period which suffered a material failure in our pilot rostering function in early September. Prior to this event, we were on track to deliver strong H1 results during which we opened 3 new bases and 80 new routes. We took delivery of 35 new B737’s in the first 6 months of 2017, we stimulated 11% traffic growth with 5% lower airfares, and achieved an industry record load factor of 97% in the peak summer months. Ancillary Revenue grew 14%. Customer spend rose 2% as more customers chose optional services such as reserved seats, priority boarding and car hire. H1 unit costs fell 5%, excluding fuel it was flat (but would have fallen 2% without the EU261 provision). Despite traffic growth of 11% our fuel bill fell 3%. Most other cost headings were broadly flat on a per passenger basis, other than our “Sales, Marketing & Other” which jumped 30% due to a one-off €25m EU261 provision, as we quickly addressed the needs of affected customers in September to recover the rostering failure, and eliminate any risk of further cancellations. Our balance sheet remains strong. Operating activity in H1 generated over €935m of net cash. We used this for net capex of €675m, share buybacks of €639m, and debt repayments of €200m. Accordingly, net debt rose from €244m at 31 March to €600m at 30 September. We don’t plan any more near term buybacks as we work to finish the fiscal year with a broadly flat net debt/cash position. Customer Initiatives We continued in H1 to roll out customer experience improvements. Ryanair.com has become the world’s largest airline website with 94% of customers visiting directly rather than via search engines. My Ryanair has grown to over 30m members in September and we should grow to over 40m by March 2018. Over half our customers now choose their preferred seat and our “Plus” fares account for approx. 7% of all sectors sold. In H1 we successfully launched Ryanair flight connections at Rome Fiumicino and Milan Bergamo. We expanded our hotels service to 5 inventory providers offering over 250,000 hotels and 7.5m rooms worldwide, and we will shortly add a travel credit incentive to reward customers using our Ryanair Rooms service. European Consolidation The underlying trend towards consolidation among European airlines continues. Monarch (5m pax) went bankrupt in September, followed by Air Berlin (29m) in October and Alitalia (24m) remains in bankruptcy. There are other financially troubled EU airlines who will, we believe, follow them. We are responding to these opportunities by continuing to grow in Germany where Lufthansa’s purchase of Air Berlin gives them an anti-competitive 95% share of the large German domestic market. We will add more aircraft to our UKP bases for S18 to take up any slack created by Monarch’s collapse, and we continue to grow strongly in Italy where we are poised to be the main beneficiary of the inevitable contraction in Alitalia’s short haul services. These trends, particularly where they allow high fare airlines like Lufthansa, BA and Air France to acquire local competitors, while constraining capacity and raising prices, can only be good for Ryanair’s yield and traffic growth, as our fleet rises to 600 aircraft, and our traffic grows from 129m to 200m p.a. by 2024. Brexit We remain concerned at the continuing uncertainty surrounding the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU in March 2019. There remains a worrying risk of a serious disruption to UK-EU flights in April 2019 unless a timely UK-EU bilateral is agreed in advance of September 2018. We, like other airlines, need clarity on this issue before we publish our summer 2019 schedules in mid-2018 and time is running short for the UK to develop a bilateral solution. We worry that the UK government continues to under-estimate the likelihood of such a flight disruption to/from the UK, an outcome that was highlighted by Air France’s CEO in an interview with The Observer newspaper on 22 October. Pilot Rostering Failure & Recovery In early September we suffered a material failure in the management of our pilot rostering function. We are not short of crews, with over 4,200 pilots (5.2 crews per aircraft) and have hired over 900 new pilots this year to date. We operated the peak summer schedule in July & August (12.5m customers monthly) without incident. However as we entered September, a series of poor planning decisions created a perfect storm of one-off pilot shortages due to: – Over-allocated calendar months of annual leave to over half our pilots in September, October, November and December; – a bottleneck of over 200 new recruits were delayed being released to line flying by mis-managed blockages in the completion of their base training; – an insufficient focus on short term pilot recruitment in summer 2017 to allow for a one-off spike in annual leave from September to December 2017 caused by our agreement with the IAA to transition over a 9 month period (April to December 2017), to a new-agreed-calendar year FTL cycle from 1 January to 31 December 2018. This rostering failure caused punctuality in the first half of September to plummet to the low 70%. We responded on Fri 15 September by taking a painful decision (solely to protect the other 98% of our customers) to cancel 50 (2%) of our 2,200 daily flights for the last 6 weeks of September & October. Then on Wed 27 September we announced the grounding of 25 (6%) of our 400 aircraft fleet for the 5 month winter season from November to March 2018. These very difficult and disruptive decisions quickly restored our schedules to 90% punctuality for the 99% of customers who were unaffected by these disruptions, and eliminated any further rostering cancellations. While we deeply regret these flight cancellations and winter schedule changes, and the disruption they caused to some 700,000 (0.5%) of our 129m customers, we have worked hard to re-accommodate or refund all affected customer requests within 18 days of notifying them. The overwhelming majority have chosen re-accommodation on alternative Ryanair flights, but we have also provided refunds, and met our EU261 obligations in full, at a cost of some €25m in H1. Additionally, we have issued every single disrupted customer a travel voucher worth €40 per sector (€80 return) redeemable in October for travel over the winter period. This rostering failure has challenged us to address the competitiveness of our pilot pay, as well as pilot concerns about communications, career progression and basing. While our pay was already slightly higher than B737 competitor airlines, we could have responded sooner to a tightening market for experienced F.O’s with pay increases for our experienced pilots, reinforcing our long standing and successful ERC collective bargaining process, and improving the range and choice of bases and contracts we offer our pilots. We will now move from being “competitive” to offering materially higher (over 20%) pay with better career prospects, superior rosters, and much better job security than Norwegian, among others, can offer. We expect these measures, if/when accepted by all our pilot bases, will add some €45m to our FY18 crew costs (and up to €100m in a full year) but will not significantly alter the substantial unit cost advantage we have over all other EU airline competitors. Outlook Having grown H1 traffic by 11%, the grounding of 25 aircraft means we will slow H2 growth to approx. 4%. As a result, full year traffic will slow from 131m to 129m customers. We are 2% better booked than this time last year, but at lower fares. We now expect FY18 fares will fall by -4% to -6%, which is slightly better than previous guidance (-5% to -7%). Ancillary spend per customer should rise by 1% this year.” Leave a Reply Cancel Reply Your email address will not be published.CommentName* Email* Website Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.